The topic of Ukraine or Ukrainian individuals selling U.S. and Western arms supplies on the black market has been a subject of both documented incidents and widespread speculation, often amplified by rumors and disinformation. The US media personality Tucker Carlson is one of the main sources in the respective headlines. Here’s a breakdown of known information and rumors:
Known Information
- Historical Context of Arms Leakage in Ukraine:
- Ukraine has a long-standing history as a source of black market arms, stemming from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. At that time, Ukraine inherited a massive stockpile of Soviet-era weapons, valued at approximately $89 billion. By 1998, a Ukrainian parliamentary commission reported that $32 billion worth of this arsenal had been lost or stolen, much of it sold on the black market.
- The 2014 conflict in eastern Ukraine, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, further exacerbated the issue. Abandoned military bases and the arming of irregular militias led to significant leakage of weapons, with some ending up in criminal hands or smuggled out of the country.
- Documented Incidents During the Current War:
- A 2023 U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General report obtained by CNN confirmed that some Western-supplied weapons and equipment intended for Ukrainian troops were stolen in 2022 by criminals, volunteer fighters, and arms traffickers before being recovered by Ukraine’s intelligence services. Examples include:
- An organized crime group, overseen by a Russian official, stole a grenade launcher, a machine gun, and over 1,000 rounds of ammunition in June 2022.
- Arms traffickers attempted to sell stolen weapons and ammunition from southern Ukraine’s frontlines.
- Ukrainian criminals posing as aid workers stole $17,000 worth of bulletproof vests.
- A volunteer battalion stole 60 rifles and nearly 1,000 rounds of ammunition, storing them in a warehouse, presumably for black market sale.
- These incidents, while significant, were disrupted, and the stolen items were recovered, suggesting that large-scale diversion was not widespread at that time.
- A 2023 U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General report obtained by CNN confirmed that some Western-supplied weapons and equipment intended for Ukrainian troops were stolen in 2022 by criminals, volunteer fighters, and arms traffickers before being recovered by Ukraine’s intelligence services. Examples include:
- Monitoring and Oversight Efforts:
- The U.S. and its allies have implemented strict auditing measures to track military aid. U.S. officials, including former National Security Advisor Keith Kellogg, have noted the presence of inspectors on the ground in Ukraine to monitor weapons transfers. Ukraine Oversight, a U.S. government initiative, reports that while some weapons have gone missing in combat zones, there’s no evidence of significant black market sales on the scale often claimed.
- In October 2022, the European Commission and U.S. State Department introduced protocols to enhance monitoring, partly in response to concerns about potential trafficking.
- Scale of Western Arms Supplies:
- Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the U.S. alone has provided approximately $69.2 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, including advanced systems like Javelin missiles, HIMARS, and artillery. NATO allies have contributed billions more. The sheer volume of aid—tens of thousands of anti-tank systems, missiles, and small arms—creates challenges for tracking every item, especially in an active war zone.
Rumors and Allegations
- Claims of Widespread Black Market Sales:
- High-profile figures like Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) have claimed that “up to half” of U.S.-supplied weapons are being sold on the black market, with some allegedly reaching Mexican cartels, Finnish gangsters, or Middle Eastern terrorists. These assertions, widely circulated on platforms like X, lack independent verification and have been debunked by fact-checkers such as Newsweek and the Kyiv Post as part of Russian disinformation campaigns.
- Russia’s UN mission, through diplomat Dmitry Polyansky in October 2023, claimed that 20% of Western weapons sent to Ukraine end up on the darknet, accessible to anyone. Russian state media, like RT, have amplified similar narratives, often citing fabricated dark web listings (e.g., Javelin missiles traced to pro-Russian Telegram channels with images from 2014).
- Disinformation Campaigns:
- A coordinated Russian effort to discredit Ukraine’s handling of Western aid has been well-documented. For instance, a 2022 viral video purporting to show a black market sale of NATO-supplied Javelins and NLAWs was traced to pro-Russian sources and featured a likely fake Albanian license plate, casting doubt on its authenticity. The BBC and other fact-checkers have identified these as staged efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine.
- Claims that Ukrainian weapons are arming groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, or Mexican cartels have been repeatedly debunked, with no credible evidence supporting such transfers. A Harvard study from June 2024 acknowledged that some weapons might go missing during the conflict but found no proof of significant illicit sales to these groups.
- Speculation Post-Ceasefire:
- Experts like Elias Yousif from the Stimson Center and European Commission officials have warned that a ceasefire or end to the conflict could increase the risk of arms smuggling, drawing parallels to the Yugoslav wars. The fear is that surplus weapons, no longer needed on the battlefield, could flood black markets in Europe, Africa, or the Middle East, though this remains speculative as of now.
Analysis and Current Sentiment
- Evidence vs. Exaggeration: While there are confirmed cases of theft and attempted black market sales, these appear to be isolated incidents rather than systemic. The scale suggested by rumors (e.g., “up to half” of aid being diverted) is not supported by U.S., Ukrainian, or independent reports. Instead, Ukrainian forces are noted for risking their lives to prevent such losses, as reported by The New York Times in 2023.
- Russian Propaganda: Much of the rumor mill aligns with Russia’s strategic interest in sowing distrust between Ukraine and its Western backers. Posts on X, such as those citing Carlson or alleging sales to cartels, reflect this narrative and are popular among skeptics of U.S. aid, though they lack substantiation.
- Future Risks: Ukraine’s history of corruption and the ongoing war’s chaos suggest a potential for black market activity, particularly if oversight weakens or the conflict ends abruptly. However, current data indicates that most Western arms are being used effectively against Russian forces, not diverted.
In summary, while there is concrete evidence of limited theft and smuggling attempts, the broader narrative of massive black market sales of U.S. and Western arms by Ukraine remains largely unsubstantiated rumor, heavily influenced by disinformation. The situation continues to evolve, with monitoring efforts ongoing to prevent such outcomes.
